None of these were “Black Swans,” which is the “go to” taxonomy for C-suites and policymakers justifying their surprise in the face of the assumptions they made about the world, signals they chose to ignore, and preparation they decided to skimp on.
Looking forward, the question is not how much machines will augment human decision-making, but whether humans will remain involved in the process at all.
Complexity flies in the face of what is merely complicated, imposing limitations to our understanding.
Information, misinformation, disinformation, and data: We might not know what to call it, but we certainly are drowning in it.
A new normal is establishing itself in which an undeclared or invisible war is fought entirely through algorithms, narratives, and manipulated media.
To adapt to our complex world of weaponized information, maybe schools should teach data as we do languages.
The importance of epistemic security and cybersecurity is now comparable to that of national security.
As sustainability is the new digital, every company needs to be an energy company.
Domino effects give way to butterfly effects given nonlinearity. “Outsized” conflates with “unpredictable” as a small cause yields disproportionate effects.
Scenarios are dynamic living narratives, and require updating as the world itself evolves.
For most of human history, space was unachievable; now it’s merely dangerous.
Many of these technologies are proven, even beyond controlled environments, so their success will be driven by the value proposition, adoption, and ability to scale in the real world.
Whether personal or organizational, building capacity to effectively deal with change creates resilience, and without exceptional resilience there is no antifragility.
Fast-changing environments drive new opportunities and gaps. Agility means finding those gaps and exploring them.
The objective is not to get the future right. Rather, our work spurs better preparation for any of the futures which may arise.
The issue with uncompromising reliance on flawed assumptions is not being wrong, but being unprepared for alternative outcomes.
If we are to remain relevant, we need to build antifragile foundations to prepare for disruption and benefit from any disorder.
As we destabilize the planetary systems we rely on for survival, the strain on our planet mirrors that in societies. These imbalances reinforce each other, amplifying the challenges.
With the world hyperconnected through smartphones as extensions of our bodies, today it is possible to package, productize, and transmit information instantly at scale to the entire planet.
This need for humans to enhance their capabilities to become AAA is relevant in the context of machines learning faster, with increasingly higher-level human functions.
Humans need to enhance their capabilities, as machines are learning fast, gaining increasingly higher-level human functions.