Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it’s been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
We’re not aware of changing our minds even when we do change our minds. And most people, after they change their minds, reconstruct their past opinion – they believe they always thought that.
Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
You’re surprised by something, but you don’t really know what surprised you; you recognize someone, but you don’t really know what cues cause you to recognize that person.
The idea that you can ask one question and it makes the point – well, that wasn’t how psychology was done at the time.
All of us would be better investors if we just made fewer decisions.
I enjoy being active, but I look forward to the day when I can retire to the Internet.
I’m not a great believer in self-help.
If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.
The brain scientists are the wave of the future in the financial world. If you seek to maximize understanding, whether you’re in academia or in the investment community, you’d better pay serious attention to them.
Establish a closing ritual. Know when to stop working. Try to end each work day the same way, too. Straighten up your desk. Back up your computer. Make a list of what you need to do tomorrow.
Most things that couples disagree upon aren’t worth more than a day’s combat...
Each additional day together is a gift. The end of the day means the end of hostilities, the recognition that the underlying shared values and commitment to the relationship trump the need for one last dig or self-righteous justification.
One study found that people who just thought about watching their favorite movie actually raised their endorphin levels by 27 percent.
A large portion of the weekend effects is explained by differences in the amount of time spent with friends or family between weekends and weekdays.
If you can’t take the time for a vacation right now, or even a night out with friends, put something on the calendar – even if it’s a month or a year down the road. Then whenever you need a boost of happiness, remind yourself about it.
If there was one ubiquitous recommendation about marriage it was this: “Don’t go to bed angry.”
The extra daily social time of 1.7 hours in weekends raises average happiness by about 2%.
Ten minutes of a smartphone in front of your nose is about the equivalent of an hour long walk in bright daylight. Imagine going for an hour long walk in bright daylight and then thinking, “Now I’ll get some sleep.” It ain’t going to happen.