System 1 operates as a machine for jumping to conclusions.
This remarkable priming phenomenon – the influencing of an action by the idea – is known as the ideomotor effect. Although you surely were not aware of it, reading this paragraph primed you as well. If you had needed to stand up to get a glass of water, you would have been slightly slower than usual to rise from your chair – unless you happen to dislike the elderly, in which case research suggests that you might have been slightly faster than usual!
People can overcome some of the superficial factors that produce illusions of truth when strongly motivated to do so. On most occasions, however, the lazy System 2 will adopt the suggestions of System 1 and march on.
It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness.
The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little. We often fail to allow for the possibility that evidence that should be critical to our judgment is missing – what we see is all there is.
The halo effect discussed earlier contributes to coherence, because it inclines us to match our view of all the qualities of a person to our judgment of one attribute that is particularly significant. If.
The core of the illusion is that we believe we understand the past, which implies that the future also should be knowable, but in fact we understand the past less than we believe we do.
The brief pleasure of a cool breeze on a hot day may make you slightly more positive and optimistic about whatever you are evaluating at that time.
Happiness does not have a simple meaning and should not be used as if it does.
Expertise is not a single skill; it is a collection of skills, and the same professional may be highly expert in some of the tasks in her domain while remaining a novice in others.
Reciprocal priming effects tend to produce a coherent reaction: if you were primed to think of old age, you would tend to act old, and acting old would reinforce the thought of old age.
One of the tasks of System 2 is to overcome the impulses of System 1. In other words, System 2 is in charge of self-control.
Observers are less cognitively busy and more open to information than actors.
System 1 does not keep track of alternatives that it rejects, or even of the fact that there were alternatives.
System 1 provides the impressions that often turn into your beliefs, and is the source of the impulses that often become your choices and your actions.
The issue becomes politically important because it is on everyone’s mind, and the response of the political system is guided by the intensity of public sentiment. The availability cascade has now reset priorities. Other risks, and other ways that resources could be applied for the public good, all have faded into the background.
Although hindsight and the outcome bias generally foster risk aversion, they also bring undeserved rewards to irresponsible risk seekers, such as a general or an entrepreneur who took a crazy gamble and won.
She says experience has taught her that criticism is more effective than praise. What she doesn’t understand is that it’s all due to regression to the mean.
A few lucky gambles can crown a reckless leader with a halo of prescience and boldness.
Somos propensos a sobrestimar lo que entendemos del mundo y a subestimar el papel del azar en los acontecimientos.