They instructed negotiators to focus their attention and search their memory for arguments against the anchor.
The main benefit of optimism is resilience in the face of setbacks.
People tend to assess the relative importance of issues by the ease with which they are retrieved from memory –.
Part 2 updates the study of judgment heuristics and explores a major puzzle: Why is it so difficult for us to think statistically? We easily think associatively, we think metaphorically, we think causally, but statistics requires thinking about many things at once, which is something that System 1 is not designed to do.
As you become skilled in a task, its demand for energy diminishes. Studies of the brain have shown that the pattern of activity associated with an action changes as skill increases, with fewer brain regions involved. Talent has similar effects. Highly intelligent individuals need less effort to solve the same problems, as indicated by both pupil size and brain activity.
The best we can do is a compromise: learn to recognize situations in which mistakes are likely and try harder to avoid significant mistakes when the stakes are high. The.
I am generally not optimistic about the potential for personal control of biases, but this is an exception.
Intense focusing on a task can make people effectively blind, even to stimuli that.
As you can experience, the request to retrieve and say aloud your phone number or your spouse’s birthday also requires a brief but significant effort, because the entire string must be held in memory as a response is organized.
What came quickly to my mind was an intuition from System 1. I’ll have to start over and search my memory deliberately.
Self-criticism is one of the functions of System 2.
The public is now well aware that formulas may do better than humans in some critical decisions in the world of sports:.
People are asked for a prediction but they substitute an evaluation of the evidence, without noticing that the question they answer is not the one they were asked. This process is guaranteed to generate predictions that are systematically biased; they completely ignore regression to the mean.
I never met Meehl, but he was one of my heroes from the time I read his Clinical vs. Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence.
Restoring the level of available sugar in the brain had prevented the deterioration of performance.
If the observers share a bias, the aggregation of judgments will not reduce it. Allowing the observers to influence each other effectively reduces the size of the sample, and with it the precision of the group estimate.
People who experience flow describe it as “a state of effortless concentration so deep that they lose their sense of time, of themselves, of their problems,” and their descriptions of the joy of that state are so compelling that Csikszentmihalyi has called it an “optimal experience.
Because you have little direct knowledge of what goes on in your mind, you will never know that you might have made a different judgment or reached a different decision under very slightly different circumstances. Formulas do not suffer from such problems. Given the same input, they always return the same answer.
The hot hand is entirely in the eye of the beholders, who are consistently too quick to perceive order and causality in randomness.
System 2 is activated when an event is detected that violates the model of the world that System 1 maintains.