The experiments showed further that the mean filial regression towards mediocrity was directly proportional to the parental deviation from it.
In the context of attitudes, however, System 2 is more of an apologist for the emotions of System 1 than a critic of those emotions – an endorser rather than an enforcer. Its search for information and arguments is mostly constrained to information that is consistent with existing beliefs, not with an intention to examine them. An active, coherence-seeking System 1 suggests solutions to an undemanding System 2.
The deeper truth is that there is nothing to explain.
The suppression of doubt contributes to overconfidence in a group where only supporters of the decision have a voice.
I tend to view the occasional failures of algorithms as opportunities to improve them. On the other hand, I find more pleasure than Klein does in the come-uppance of arrogant experts who claim intuitive powers in zero-validity situations.
A story is about significant events and memorable moments, not about time passing.
System 1 is gullible and biased to believe, System 2 is in charge of doubting and unbelieving, but System 2 is sometimes busy, and often lazy.
Richer and more realistic assumptions do not suffice to make a theory successful. Scientists.
But we should not expect performance in officer training and in combat to be predictable from behavior on an obstacle field – behavior both on the test and in the real world is determined by many factors that are specific to the particular situation. Remove.
When the driver of a car is overtaking a truck on a narrow road, for example, adult passengers quite sensibly stop talking.
Fast thinking includes both variants of intuitive thought – the expert and the heuristic.
The third principle is loss aversion. When directly compared or weighted against each other, losses loom larger than gains. This asymmetry between the power of positive and negative expectations or experiences has an evolutionary history. Organisms that treat threats as more urgent than opportunities have a better chance to survive and reproduce.
The halo effect and outcome bias combine to explain the extraordinary appeal of books that seek to draw operational morals from systematic examination of successful businesses.
These findings add to the growing evidence that good mood, intuition, creativity, gullibility, and increased reliance on System 1 form a cluster.
Charge the loss to your mental account of ‘general revenue’ – you will feel better!
Why call them System 1 and System 2 rather than the more descriptive “automatic system” and “effortful system”? The reason is simple: “Automatic system” takes longer to say than “System 1” and therefore takes more space in your working memory. This matters, because anything that occupies your working memory reduces your ability to think.
The bat-and-ball problem is our first encounter with an observation that will be a recurrent theme of this book: many people are overconfident, prone to place too much faith in their intuitions. They apparently find cognitive effort at least mildly unpleasant and avoid it as much as possible.
Many parents have discovered, perhaps with some guilt, that they can read a story to a child while thinking of something else.
Nick Epley and Tom Gilovich found evidence that adjustment is a deliberate attempt to find reasons to move away from the anchor:.
For some of our most important beliefs we have no evidence at all, except that people we love and trust hold these beliefs. Considering.