When the facts change, I change my mind,” the economist John Maynard Keynes famously said. “What do you do, sir?
Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.
There’s always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.
New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
Success makes you less intimidated by things.
When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen.
We’re not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information – and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.
I was looking for something like baseball, where there’s a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That’s when I discovered politics.
I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
I think there’s space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
I’ve become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I’m actually doing and what I actually deserve.
If you have reason to think that yesterday’s forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it.
In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.