Raising the probability of being right is valuable no matter what your probability of being right already is.
Beware of group-think: The fact that no one seems concerned doesn’t mean nothing is wrong.
In picking people for long-term relationships, values are most important, abilities come next, and skills are the least important.
Reality is optimizing for the whole – not for you.
To have a real idea meritocracy, there must be transparency so that people can see things for themselves.
A manager’s ability to recognize when outcomes are inconsistent with goals and then modify designs and assemble people to rectify them makes all the difference in the world. The more often and more effectively a manager does this, the steeper the upward trajectory.
Man didn’t create these laws, but by understanding them we can use them to foster our own evolution and achieve our goals. For example, our ability to fly or to send cell phone signals around the world came from understanding and applying the existing rules of reality – the physical laws or principles that govern the natural world.
Having everyone randomly probe everyone else is an unproductive waste of time.
Remember that people tend to pick people like themselves, so choose interviewers who can identify what you are looking for. If you’re looking for a visionary, pick a visionary to do the interview in which you probe for vision. If you are looking for a mix of qualities, assemble a group of interviewers who embody those qualities collectively.
Anything is possible. It’s the probabilities that matter.
Some decisions you should make yourself and some you should delegate to someone more believable.
Relationships have to be genuine, not forced;.
Radically open-minded people know that coming up with the right questions and asking other smart people what they think is as important as having all the answers.
A thorough and accurate diagnosis, while more time-consuming, will pay huge dividends in the future.
When you ask someone whether something is true and they tell you that it’s not totally true, it’s probably by-and-large true.
View painful problems as potential improvements that are screaming at you.
Exploring the views of people who are still building their track record can give you valuable insights into how they might handle various responsibilities.
Recognize that performance in school doesn’t tell you much about whether a person has the values and abilities you are looking for. Largely because they are the easiest to measure, memory and processing speed tend to be the abilities that determine success in school, so school performance is an excellent gauge of these qualities.
Some decisions are best made after acquiring more information; some are best made immediately.
Bad outcomes don’t just happen; they occur because specific people make, or fail to make, specific decisions.