As we evaluate the opportunities and risks that emanate from the scenarios developed, we scrutinize the potential consequences of the different alternative futures. This allows us to build resilience and the capacity to sustain even the most serious impacts and outcomes.
The antifragile perfects being imperfect.
Like any foundation, antifragility requires continued care to remain resilient to new hazards, which constantly emerge to erode it.
When new connections are made with a multiplicity of perspectives and diverging points of view, inspiration is unleashed.
The more you practice thinking on your feet and the more you prepare for future scenarios, the better you get at improvising when they arise.
Information affects the very fabric of society. It could be the primary weapon in the future of war, and it could determine the future of humanity.
The value of intangibles derived from intellectual property rights and trademarks from brands, inventions, software code, and programs has never been higher.
The cost of being prepared pales in comparison with the reputational, financial, and human costs of lacking anticipation.
In a systemic world, there is no such thing as discrete or isolated events – impacts cascade and spill over. Drivers of disruption collide, intersect, and amplify.
Disclosures that quantify climate risks can help realign decision-making towards building a resilient climate economy. This creates positive feedback loops to drive further adaptive measures.
Our complex world is unpredictable and subject to dynamic change that can yield disproportionate and incomprehensible impacts. Relying on arbitrary assumptions does not help quantify the unquantifiable, nor make the unknowable known.
The world is not made up of separate parts operating in isolation. This reductionist view of an understandable, controlled, and predictable world is flawed. And so, the strings, wires, and controls used to manage this illusionary discrete world are obsolete.
For the first time in history, we have no answers to many of the fundamental questions around how the world or humanity might look a decade or two ahead.
There are new parameters for “unprecedented,” as unprecedented becomes the norm.
Two of the most potent antidotes to relying entirely on assumptions are imagination and a small dose of humility. Humility is a place for learning.
The degree of surprise or shock you experience from disruption correlates to your level of preparedness, perspectives, and your reliance on assumptions.
The bar to become and remain relevant is higher than ever. You need to run that much faster to stay in the same place, or even likely end up behind.
Reshoring, backshoring, and onshoring are now replacing offshoring and outsourcing.
You can’t rely on modeling uncertainties to deliver certainty.
The ultimate disruption would be an existential event so catastrophic that it leads to the extinction of humanity.